Don’t take risk with influenza

THE H1N1 influenza, previously called swine flu, which is sweeping around the world is a new flu virus that most of us will have no protection against.

Normally this would set the alarm bells ringing as a potentially new pandemic strain, and indeed this is what’s happened – but the new virus appears to be much milder than anticipated.

So, is there a risk or are we over-reacting? There have been nearly 18,000 confirmed cases worldwide by June 1, and about 103 deaths, but most people have reported only a mild illness and relatively few cases have required hospital treatment.

Pandemic influenza can be a deadly disease. In 1918-19, the world suffered from one of the most deadly pandemics ever known, with more than 60 million deaths worldwide. Since then, we have had two further pandemics – Asian flu in 1957 and Hong Kong flu in 1968 – but both of these were much milder.

At present, the new H1N1 strain appears to be following the 1957 pattern, with milder outbreaks initially, but in 1957 the virus then took a turn to be more virulent later.

Will this be what happens this time too? We cannot take a risk with influenza. It is a virus that frequently does the unexpected, and we have to be prepared for it to become more virulent.

The new virus is different, though, to seasonal influenza strains. Seasonal flu can be very serious in the old (over 65s), the very young, and those with chronic broncho-pulmonary diseases.

However, the people who are most at risk to the new virus may have chronic diseases, especially asthma and diabetes, and possibly those with very poor nutrition or who are very significantly overweight. If you are in one of those groups and you feel unwell from influenza-like illness, see your doctor as soon as possible.

Will the virus return as a more serious pandemic influenza in a “second wave” next winter?

We just don’t know. But it’s better to be ready for it with a new vaccine available, than to bury our heads in the sand.